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BICOM
Weekend Brief: The deployment of PA security forces in Gaza: an
assessment
After
an uncertain beginning, the shape of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas's
strategy is beginning to emerge through his dealings with Israel
and his rivals on the Palestinian political stage. On Friday, Palestinian
security forces began to deploy personnel in areas of northern Gaza
that have been used as sites for the launching of Qassam rockets
and other mortar attacks on Israeli communities. At the same time,
senior representatives of the Palestinian Authority (PA) are in
negotiations with leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the terrorist
organisations responsible for these attacks. The talks, sponsored
by Egypt and taking place
in Cairo, are intended to draw these Islamist rejectionist groups
into the political process, offering them a portion of political
power in return for the cessation of their engagement in terrorism.[1] What practical form is this dual strategy taking? What prospects
does it hold for the achievement of an extended period of quiet
between Israelis and Palestinians, and a return to the diplomatic
process?
While
Israel welcomed the deployment
of Palestinian security forces in Gaza on Friday, some observers
have noted that the deployment was largely symbolic.[2]
Moreover, the operations have been shrouded in ambiguity regarding
the actual tasks of the troops in place, as well as the orders they
would receive if they actually confront a Palestinian terrorist
force intent on launching a mission against an Israeli target. On
the one hand, there are some positive indications. Israel’s
Channel 1 News reported on Friday that Chairman Abbas
ordered deployed Palestinian security forces to open fire on terrorists
discovered attempting to launch Qassams. According to the report,
the Chairman has also sacked the commander of the Palestinian post
at the Karni crossing, after it was discovered that he aided the
terrorists who murdered six Israeli civilians in the attack there
on January 14. The plan for the deployment, presented to Israeli
officers by Gaza security Chief Moussa Arafat last Wednesday, surprised
Israelis initially by its thoroughness. The deployment, completed
yesterday, involves 2,000 personnel, and there are plans for extending
it to the southern end of the Gaza Strip in the coming days.[3] Prime Minister Sharon expressed positive
impressions in an interview with Israel Radio, describing
the initial steps taken by the Palestinians as “very impressive.”
On
the other hand, interviews conducted by both Israeli and foreign
correspondents with Palestinian personnel taking part in the deployment
painted a more complex picture. One Palestinian police officer interviewed
dismissed the suggestion that he would take part in a confrontation
with militants, declaring that, "I'm not ready to shoot at my cousin
or brother," adding that, "Anyway, if we did get the order we wouldn't
do it."[4] Another,
Ismail al-Dadouh, a senior officer, told Reuters that
the strategy, if his forces encountered a Qassam team would be to
"avoid clashing with them and…talk to them in a positive way." [5]
Such
statements clearly arouse Israeli concern. But they are also indicative
of a more general, latent difference between the approach Israel
would like to see, and the actual policy being adopted by Chairman
Abbas. While Israel is
asking for the implementation of Phase I of the Roadmap, which stipulates
the disarming and dismantling of the infrastructure of terror, Mr.
Abbas wants both Israel
and the international community to give him time to demonstrate
that another way can produce results. According to a recent report
in the Guardian,[6]
Abbas is in the process of brokering a deal with the Hamas: in return
for ceasing attacks on Israel, Hamas would receive a role in the
Palestinian government, and a guarantee from the PA Chairman that
he will not retreat from the demand for a Palestinian state in the
entirety of the 1967 borders, with its capital in east Jerusalem.[7] The Guardian report does not mention the demand
for the so-called ‘right of return,’ but it is unlikely that Hamas
has decided to forego this central demand.
Israeli
officials have confirmed that Israel
will give Abbas time to demonstrate that PA security personnel will
actually move to stop terror on the ground. Israel
has said that it will not carry out military operations if they
are not required.[8] Some analysts are concerned that
Abbas's desire to co-opt, rather than confront, Hamas and other
rejectionist forces will lessen the chance for a successful return
to negotiations. Israeli analysts recall the trajectory of the peace
process of the 1990's: after the initial enthusiasm of cooperation,
talks rapidly became bogged down on the specifics of agreement.
This enabled former PA Chairman Yasser Arafat to use the Palestinian
rejectionist organisations as a threat, warning Israelis that a
failure to be more accommodating might result in the regrettable
but unavoidable unleashing of violence by these groups. While Israel
has long been committed to a full and just peace, it will not countenance
the re-emergence of such a scenario.
The
first practical evidence of Chairman Abbas's direction as the new
leader confirms the impression of him as a pragmatist, who long
ago recognised the futility of ongoing violence against Israel,
despite his own ideological background. At the same time, whether
he proves able or willing to make the decisive, historical shift
toward wider-ranging pragmatism, including an acceptance of Israel
as a Jewish state and a determination to thwart terror attacks and
anti-Jewish incitement, remains an open question.
[1]
Chris Mcgreal, "Abbas offers Hamas deal to end violence," The Guardian, 22/1
[2]
Greg Myre & Steven Erlanger, "Abbas Deploys Forces in Gaza
to Prevent Attacks on Israel,"
New York Times, 22/1
[3]
Amos Harel & Arnon Regular, "Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades say
they are ready for cease-fire," Haaretz, 22/1
[4]
Andrew Metz, "In Gaza, reluctance to stop militants," Newsday, 22/1
[5]
Nidal al-Mughrabi, " Palestinian security forces deploy
in Gaza," Reuters, 22/1
[8]
National Security Council head, Maj.-Gen. Giora Eiland, quoted
in Harel and Regular (ibid.)
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