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BICOM Weekend Brief: The deployment of PA security forces in Gaza: an assessment

After an uncertain beginning, the shape of PA Chairman Mahmoud Abbas's strategy is beginning to emerge through his dealings with Israel and his rivals on the Palestinian political stage. On Friday, Palestinian security forces began to deploy personnel in areas of northern Gaza that have been used as sites for the launching of Qassam rockets and other mortar attacks on Israeli communities. At the same time, senior representatives of the Palestinian Authority (PA) are in negotiations with leaders of Hamas and Islamic Jihad, the terrorist organisations responsible for these attacks. The talks, sponsored by Egypt and taking place in Cairo, are intended to draw these Islamist rejectionist groups into the political process, offering them a portion of political power in return for the cessation of their engagement in terrorism.[1] What practical form is this dual strategy taking? What prospects does it hold for the achievement of an extended period of quiet between Israelis and Palestinians, and a return to the diplomatic process?

While Israel welcomed the deployment of Palestinian security forces in Gaza on Friday, some observers have noted that the deployment was largely symbolic.[2] Moreover, the operations have been shrouded in ambiguity regarding the actual tasks of the troops in place, as well as the orders they would receive if they actually confront a Palestinian terrorist force intent on launching a mission against an Israeli target. On the one hand, there are some positive indications. Israel’s Channel 1 News reported on Friday that Chairman Abbas ordered deployed Palestinian security forces to open fire on terrorists discovered attempting to launch Qassams. According to the report, the Chairman has also sacked the commander of the Palestinian post at the Karni crossing, after it was discovered that he aided the terrorists who murdered six Israeli civilians in the attack there on January 14. The plan for the deployment, presented to Israeli officers by Gaza security Chief Moussa Arafat last Wednesday, surprised Israelis initially by its thoroughness. The deployment, completed yesterday, involves 2,000 personnel, and there are plans for extending it to the southern end of the Gaza Strip in the coming days.[3] Prime Minister Sharon expressed positive impressions in an interview with Israel Radio, describing the initial steps taken by the Palestinians as “very impressive.”

On the other hand, interviews conducted by both Israeli and foreign correspondents with Palestinian personnel taking part in the deployment painted a more complex picture. One Palestinian police officer interviewed dismissed the suggestion that he would take part in a confrontation with militants, declaring that, "I'm not ready to shoot at my cousin or brother," adding that, "Anyway, if we did get the order we wouldn't do it."[4] Another, Ismail al-Dadouh, a senior officer, told Reuters that the strategy, if his forces encountered a Qassam team would be to "avoid clashing with them and…talk to them in a positive way." [5]

Such statements clearly arouse Israeli concern. But they are also indicative of a more general, latent difference between the approach Israel would like to see, and the actual policy being adopted by Chairman Abbas. While Israel is asking for the implementation of Phase I of the Roadmap, which stipulates the disarming and dismantling of the infrastructure of terror, Mr. Abbas wants both Israel and the international community to give him time to demonstrate that another way can produce results. According to a recent report in the Guardian,[6] Abbas is in the process of brokering a deal with the Hamas: in return for ceasing attacks on Israel, Hamas would receive a role in the Palestinian government, and a guarantee from the PA Chairman that he will not retreat from the demand for a Palestinian state in the entirety of the 1967 borders, with its capital in east Jerusalem.[7] The Guardian report does not mention the demand for the so-called ‘right of return,’ but it is unlikely that Hamas has decided to forego this central demand.

Israeli officials have confirmed that Israel will give Abbas time to demonstrate that PA security personnel will actually move to stop terror on the ground. Israel has said that it will not carry out military operations if they are not required.[8] Some analysts are concerned that Abbas's desire to co-opt, rather than confront, Hamas and other rejectionist forces will lessen the chance for a successful return to negotiations. Israeli analysts recall the trajectory of the peace process of the 1990's: after the initial enthusiasm of cooperation, talks rapidly became bogged down on the specifics of agreement. This enabled former PA Chairman Yasser Arafat to use the Palestinian rejectionist organisations as a threat, warning Israelis that a failure to be more accommodating might result in the regrettable but unavoidable unleashing of violence by these groups. While Israel has long been committed to a full and just peace, it will not countenance the re-emergence of such a scenario.

The first practical evidence of Chairman Abbas's direction as the new leader confirms the impression of him as a pragmatist, who long ago recognised the futility of ongoing violence against Israel, despite his own ideological background. At the same time, whether he proves able or willing to make the decisive, historical shift toward wider-ranging pragmatism, including an acceptance of Israel as a Jewish state and a determination to thwart terror attacks and anti-Jewish incitement, remains an open question.



[1] Chris Mcgreal, "Abbas offers Hamas deal to end violence," The Guardian, 22/1

[2] Greg Myre & Steven Erlanger, "Abbas Deploys Forces in Gaza to Prevent Attacks on Israel," New York Times, 22/1

[3] Amos Harel & Arnon Regular, "Al Aqsa Martyrs Brigades say they are ready for cease-fire," Haaretz, 22/1

[4] Andrew Metz, "In Gaza, reluctance to stop militants," Newsday, 22/1

[5] Nidal al-Mughrabi, " Palestinian security forces deploy in Gaza," Reuters, 22/1

[6] Mcgreal (ibid.)

[7] Mcgreal (ibid.)

[8] National Security Council head, Maj.-Gen. Giora Eiland, quoted in Harel and Regular (ibid.)

Source: Bicom

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